Morningstar puts Anthropic's fair value at $1.7 trillion ahead of its IPO

Morningstar values Anthropic at $1.7 trillion in its base case, according to its analysis of the AI company's potential IPO. The estimate implies a 2027 price-to-sales multiple of about 13 times.

Morningstar forecasts annual revenue growth of 47% over the next five years. It cites Anthropic's existing enterprise customers, potential expansion among large companies, and distribution through AWS Bedrock and Google Vertex AI as the main sources of growth.

The analysis estimates a value at $3 trillion in a bull case, based on annual revenue growth exceeding 60%. Its bear case values Anthropic at $500 billion and assumes 22% annual growth, slower enterprise adoption, and more gradual gains in model capabilities. Morningstar assigns the company a narrow economic moat rating and a very high uncertainty rating.

Morningstar notes Anthropic already has almost 12,000 customers spending more than $100,000 a year and over 250 spending more than $10 million.