Bain's Model Puts AI at 0.7% of Global Energy, Against 11% From Executives and 19% From Consumers

Bain & Company reports a wide gap between what people expect AI to consume in energy and what its own model produces. Executives surveyed estimated that AI would use about 11% of global energy within three years. Consumers estimated 19%. Bain's IntersectSM modelling tool forecast 0.7%.

That is a factor of roughly fifteen between the executives' figure and the model's, and roughly twenty seven between the consumers' figure and the model's. Nearly two thirds of surveyed consumers said concerns about AI's environmental impact had prompted them to take action, so the belief is already changing behaviour whichever number is closer.

The 0.7% is Bain's own output rather than an independent measurement, and Bain sells advice to companies on both sides of that gap.

The surrounding report covers sustainable technology investment more broadly. Private companies and governments put $17 trillion into sustainable technologies over the past decade, reaching a record $2.4 trillion in 2025, with 90% going to green energy, buildings and mobility. Of 37 technologies Bain tracked, only solar, batteries and electric vehicles exceeded their ten year deployment forecasts and 29 missed them. Agriculture, manufacturing and materials, and natural capital drew less than 10% of investment while producing about 37% of global greenhouse gas emissions.