Report urges caution on space data centers: 10% of 2030 AI capacity in orbit would need 700 launches a year

Space-based data centers are likely to arrive within a few years, before the risks of large-scale deployment are understood or governed, according to a report from the Innovation for Cool Earth Forum led by David Sandalow, inaugural fellow at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia's Climate School reports.

The report, "Space-Based Data Centers Roadmap: The Case for Caution," calculates that putting even 10% of the AI data centers expected by 2030 into orbit would take more than 700 launches of large rockets a year, about two a day, indefinitely. It argues that neither technical hurdles nor high costs will stop early deployment, because leading companies will absorb high costs for years to gain expertise and market position.

The authors also flag cooling, since satellites can only shed heat by radiating it, and say large constellations could make satellites outnumber visible stars in many places. They list debris, damage from falling satellites, ozone depletion and added warming among other risks, and propose brightness limits, pre-launch impact assessments, caps on satellite numbers and international standards. They urge policymakers not to allow large constellations until there is more operating experience.