ifo: entry-level jobs falling in the most AI-exposed occupations while overall employment holds

Employment of young people starting their careers is falling in occupations with high exposure to AI, while overall employment remains stable, according to a new early indicator from the ifo Institute. "We see no sign so far of broad job losses due to AI. But those starting out in working life are the first to feel the change," said ifo president Clemens Fuest.

The indicator compares employment and hiring by age across 140 occupations against the AI exposure of their tasks. Since the third quarter of 2022, employment in the most exposed occupations has grown 1.8% and in the least exposed has fallen 6.4%. But full-time employment of 20- to 24-year-olds in the most exposed occupations fell 14%, from around 279,000 to 239,000. ifo economist Yuchen Guo said AI can already take over many tasks in areas such as clerical support and IT support, which used to offer good entry opportunities.

The authors stress that the indicator describes a development and cannot show that AI alone is behind it; demographic change, longer training and harder onboarding under remote work still need to be examined. They call for training to be aligned more closely with skills that complement AI.