Study links new AI-era data centres to delayed coal plant retirement and 1.96 gigatons of extra CO2

Nov 10, 2026
A Nature Climate Change paper finds coal plants exposed to data centres built after 2020 face lower retirement risk, with each standard deviation of exposure tied to about 1.7% longer life.

A study published in Nature Climate Change links data centers built after 2020 with lower retirement rates for exposed coal power plants. The authors, who say the relationship had not been empirically assessed before, used global data on data centers and coal power plants to assess the relationship.

Each standard deviation increase in exposure to data centers built after 2020 was associated with an estimated 1.7% extension in plant lifespan. The link was stronger among coal plants with lower CO2 emissions intensity and higher thermal efficiency.

The study identified 937 exposed coal generation units. It projects that these units will collectively produce an additional 1.96 gigatons of CO2 from 2025 until retirement, with a 95% confidence interval of 1.01 to 2.92 gigatons, and argue that digital infrastructure needs to be built into net-zero pathways.

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