DMCC Report Finds AI and Tariffs Reshaping Global Trade

DMCC announced in a press release that its Future of Trade 2026 report projects global commerce will stay resilient over the next two years while undergoing structural change. Four in five business leaders expect ongoing disruption as artificial intelligence, shifting tariffs, and competition for critical minerals transform trade patterns.

The report notes that AI-related goods accounted for 43 percent of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2025, expanding five times faster than goods not tied to AI. Nearly one fifth of imported goods were affected by tariffs or similar trade measures.

According to the report, global merchandise exports are expected to slow to 1.9 percent in 2026, down from 4.6 percent in 2025, before a modest recovery to 2.6 percent in 2027. It identifies four main forces shaping global commerce: the move of AI from experimentation to operation, the instability of tariff frameworks, supply chains redesigned for resilience, and the energy transition driving industrial competition.

South-South trade now represents about 35 percent of global trade, surpassing North-North flows, as emerging markets increase their role in the evolving trade landscape.