UCLA Forecast Says AI Investment Adds Nearly One Point to Core US GDP Growth

The UCLA Anderson Forecast said in a press release that AI infrastructure investment and wealth tied to rising technology equity values account for nearly one percentage point of core US GDP growth. Capital spending by large technology companies has supported business investment, while higher equity values have helped sustain consumer spending.

The forecast expects US economic growth to remain above 2% for the rest of 2026 and near 2% in 2027 and 2028. It projects monthly payroll growth of zero to 50,000 jobs and unemployment near 4.2% over that period.

Inflation is expected to rise toward 4% this winter, while core inflation could approach 2.9% in early to mid 2027 before gradually declining. The forecast expects the Federal Reserve to raise its target rate by another quarter point in December and then hold rates steady through 2027, barring another supply shock.

A separate analysis from the forecast distinguishes AI investment from the economic effects of using AI. It finds that infrastructure spending and equity values are already supporting growth, but evidence of broad changes in employment or productivity caused by AI remains inconclusive.