Gartner Says $3.5 Trillion in AI Infrastructure Spending Faces Impairment Risk by 2030

Oct 16, 2026
Gartner estimates that more than $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending could face impairment by 2030 if providers maintain their current pace of capital investment.

Gartner, a business and technology insights company that sells its research to clients, said in a press release that more than $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by the end of 2030 if providers maintain their current pace of capital investment. AI providers are expected to spend nearly $1 trillion on infrastructure in 2026 and another $6 trillion from 2027 to 2030.

Gartner estimates that AI data center owners would need $8.5 trillion in cumulative revenue through 2030 to cover announced spending, financing costs and a 12% return on invested capital. It forecasts no more than $3.6 trillion in enterprise and consumer AI revenue attributable to data centers during that period.

Continued investment at the current pace could expose more than $4 trillion in asset value to write downs through 2032. Gartner also predicts that cost pressure and limited differentiation will cause more than 80% of neocloud providers to cease independent operations by 2030.

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